The Predictability of Real Exchange Rate Changes in the Short and Long Run
NBER Working Paper No. 3468
Nominal exchange rates do not move to offset differences in inflation rates on a month to month, quarter to quarter, or even year to year basis, resulting in sizable real exchange rate changes. Are these changes predictable? We address this question in three ways. First, we describe a variety of tests of predictability and explain how the different tests are related. Next, we implement the tests for the U.S. dollar relative to four currencies and find statistically significant evidence that real exchange rate changes are predictable. Finally, we examine whether the predictability is of an economically interesting magnitude.
Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w3468
Published: Japan and the World Economy, Volume 3, pp. 17-38, 1991 citation courtesy of
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