Large Shocks Travel Fast
We leverage the inflation upswing of 2022 and various granular datasets to identify robust price-setting patterns following a large supply shock. We show that the frequency of price changes increases dramatically after a large shock. We set up a parsimonious New Keynesian model and calibrate it to fit the steady-state data before the shock. The model features a significant component of state-dependent decisions, implying that large cost shocks incite firms to react more swiftly than usual, resulting in a rapid pass-through to prices -- large shocks travel fast. Understanding this feature is crucial for interpreting recent inflation dynamics.
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Copy CitationAlberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi, and Ken Miyahara, "Large Shocks Travel Fast," NBER Working Paper 31659 (2023), https://doi.org/10.3386/w31659.Download Citation
Published Versions
Alberto Cavallo & Francesco Lippi & Ken Miyahara, 2024. "Large Shocks Travel Fast," American Economic Review: Insights, vol 6(4), pages 558-574.