We are grateful to Jing Cai, Patricia Funk, Taiji Furusawa, Takeo Hoshi, Keiko Ito, Daiji Kawaguchi, Wolfgang Keller, Pinchuan Ong, Jessica Pan, Ricardo Perez-Truglia, Giovanni Pica, Kazuhiro Teramoto, Kensuke Teshima, Alessandra Voena, Andrea Weber, David Weinstein, and participants at AASLE, Academia Sinica, Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, CREPE and TSR joint seminar, Keio University, Kobe University, Korean Economic Association International Conference, Monash HELP conference, Musashi University, National University of Singapore, NBER Japan Project Meeting, Tohoku University, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Università della Svizzera Italiana, University of Queensland, Waseda University, Yokohama City University, and ZEW. This research was conducted under a joint research agreement between the Center for Research and Education in Program Evaluation (CREPE) at the University of Tokyo and Tokyo Shoko Research, LTD (TSR). Izumi acknowledges financial support from the Murata Science Foundation grant and the Research Project Grant of the Policy Research Center at GRIPS. Shigeoka acknowledges the financial support from JSPS KAKENHI (23H00828, 22H00057, 22H00847, 22H05009, 22K21341) and JST ERATO (JPMJER2301). The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from ESRI, the Cabinet Office of the Government of Japan. All errors are ours. The views expressed in this study are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the ESRI, the Cabinet Office, Government of Japan, or the National Bureau of Economic Research.