The Welfare Effect of a Consumer Subsidy with Price Ceilings: The Case of Chinese Cell Phones

Subsidies to consumers may cause firms to charge higher prices, which offsets consumer benefits from subsidies. We study a subsidy program design that mitigates such price increases by making products' eligibility for a subsidy dependent on firms' commitment to price ceilings. To quantify the importance of such competition for eligibility, we develop a structural model and an estimation procedure that accommodate binding pricing constraints. We find that competition for eligibility mitigates the price increases arising from the subsidy and even leads to a reduction in prices for some products. It improves consumer and total surpluses while limiting government subsidy payments.