How do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates
NBER Working Paper No. 26572
Using multi-country data from 62 elections since 1952, we show that 17% to 29% of voters make up their mind during the final two months of campaigns, generating sizeable swings in candidates’ vote shares. We obtain these results by measuring the consistency between vote intention and vote choice of respondents surveyed at different points before, and then again after, the election. Changes in vote choice are concomitant to shifts in salient issues and beliefs about candidates, while policy preferences remain remarkably stable. Televised debates do not affect vote choice formation, suggesting that information continuously received by voters is more impactful.
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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w26572