Marriage, Children, and Labor Supply: Beliefs and Outcomes
While a large literature is interested in the relationship between family and labor supply outcomes, little is known about the expectations of these objects at earlier stages. We examine these expectations, taking advantage of unique data from the Berea Panel Study. In addition to characterizing expectations, starting during college, the data details outcomes for ten years after graduation. On average, both male and female college students are well-informed about the future gender gap in labor supply. Gender differences in beliefs about this future gap are primarily explained by gender differences in beliefs about how future family outcomes are related to future labor supply. Methodological contributions come from an approach for addressing measurement error in survey questions and the recognition that expectations data, along with longitudinal data, can potentially help address endogeneity issues arising in the estimation of the causal effect of family on labor supply.
This project was made possible by generous support from the Mellon Foundation, the Spencer Foundation, the National Science Foundation, and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, and benefited from the insight of Peter Arcidiacono. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Yifan Gong & Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd Stinebrickner, 2020. "Marriage, children, and labor supply: Beliefs and outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, .