Hedging Macroeconomic and Financial Uncertainty and Volatility
We study the pricing of uncertainty shocks using a wide-ranging set of options that reveal premia for macroeconomic risks. Portfolios hedging macro uncertainty have historically earned zero or even significantly positive returns, while those exposed to the realization of large shocks have earned negative premia. The results are consistent with an important role for "good uncertainty". Options for nonfinancials are particularly important for spanning macro risks and good uncertainty. The results dictate the role of uncertainty and volatility in structural models and we show they are consistent with a simple extension of the long-run risk model.
You may purchase this paper on-line in .pdf format from SSRN.com ($5) for electronic delivery.
Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w26323