NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Demography, Unemployment, Automation, and Digitalization: Implications for the Creation of (Decent) Jobs, 2010-2030

David E. Bloom, Mathew McKenna, Klaus Prettner

NBER Working Paper No. 24835
Issued in July 2018
NBER Program(s):Program on the Development of the American Economy, Development Economics Program, Labor Studies Program

Globally, an estimated 734 million jobs will be required between 2010 and 2030 to accommodate recent and ongoing demographic shifts, account for plausible changes in labour force participation rates, and achieve target unemployment rates of at or below 4 percent for adults and at or below 8 percent for youth. The facts that i) most new jobs will be required in countries where “decent” jobs are less prevalent and ii) workers in many occupations are increasingly subject to risks of automation further compound the challenge of job creation, which is already quite sizable in historical perspective. Failure to create the jobs that are needed through 2030 would put currently operative social security systems under pressure and undermine efforts to guarantee the national social protection floors enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w24835

 
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