Trade Induced Structural Change and the Skill Premium
NBER Working Paper No. 23503
We study how international trade affects manufacturing employment and the relative wage of unskilled workers when goods and services are traded with different intensities. Manufacturing trade reduces manufacturing prices worldwide, which reduces manufacturing employment if manufactures and services are complements. We document that manufacturing production is unskilled-labor intensive, so that these changes increase the skill-premium. We incorporate this mechanism in a quantitative trade model and show that trade has had a negative impact on manufacturing employment and the relative wage of unskilled workers. The impact on the skill premium was larger in developing countries where manufacturing is particularly unskilled-labor intensive.
Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w23503
Published: Javier Cravino & Sebastian Sotelo, 2019. "Trade-Induced Structural Change and the Skill Premium," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol 11(3), pages 289-326.
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