Why Do Estimates of the EMU Effect On Trade Vary so Much?
Larger data sets, with more countries and a longer span of time, exhibit systematically larger effects of European monetary union on trade. I establish this stylized fact with meta-analysis and confirm it by estimating a plain-vanilla gravity model. I then explain this finding by examining systematic biases in “multilateral resistance to trade” manifest in time-varying country fixed effects; bias grows as the sample is truncated by dropping small poor countries.
Rocca Professor of International Business at Berkeley-Haas, ABFER Senior Fellow, CEPR Research Fellow, and NBER Research Associate. This paper draws on and grew out of related work with Reuven Glick and Tom Stanley, whom I thank for earlier interactions. For hospitality during the course of this research I thank the National University of Singapore, which I visited as Wee Cho Yaw fellow. For helpful comments I thank: Fred Bergsten, Chad Bown, Bill Cline, Caroline Freund, Simon Johnson, Adam Posen, Robert Reed, Tom Stanley, and participants at the MAER colloquium and the Peterson Institute for International Economics. A current version of this paper, relevant data, and output are available at my website. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Andrew K. Rose, 2017. "Why do Estimates of the EMU Effect on Trade Vary so Much?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, February. citation courtesy of