Predicting Experimental Results: Who Knows What?
---- Acknowledgments ----
We thank Dan Benjamin, Jon de Quidt, Emir Kamenica, David Laibson, Barbara Mellers, Katie Milkman, Sendhil Mullainathan, Uri Simonsohn, Erik Snowberg, Richard Thaler, Kevin Volpp, and especially Ned Augenblick, Don Moore, Philipp Strack, and Dmitry Taubinsky for their comments and suggestions. We are also grateful to the audiences at Bonn University, Frankfurt University, the London School of Economics, the Max Planck Institute in Bonn, the Wharton School, at the University of California, Berkeley, at the 2016 JDM Preconference, the 2015 Munich Behavioral Economics Conference and at the 2016 EWEBE conference for useful comments. We thank Alden Cheng, Felix Chopra, Thomas Graeber, Johannes Hermle, Jana Hofmeier, Lukas Kiessling, Tobias Raabe, Michael Sheldon, Patricia Sun, and Brian Wheaton for excellent research assistance. We are also very appreciate of the time contributed by all the experts, as well as the PhD students, undergraduate students, MBA students, and MTurk workers who participated. We are very grateful for support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (award FP061020). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.