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Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Currency of Invoicing and Market Share

Michael B. Devereux, Ben Tomlin, Wei Dong

NBER Working Paper No. 21413
Issued in July 2015
NBER Program(s):International Finance and Macroeconomics

This paper investigates the impact of market structure on the joint determination of exchange rate pass- through and currency of invoicing in international trade. A novel feature of the study is the focus on market share of firms on both sides of the market—that is, exporting firms and importing firms. A model of monopolistic competition with heterogeneous firms has the following set of predictions: a) exchange rate pass-through should be non-monotonic and U-shaped in the market share of exporting firms, but monotonically declining in the market share of importers; b) exchange rate pass-through should be lower, the higher is local currency invoicing of imports; and c) producer currency invoicing should be related non-monotonically and U-shaped to exporter market share, and monotonically declining in importing firms’ market share. We test these predictions using a new and large micro data set covering the universe of Canadian imports over a six-year period. The data strongly support all three predictions.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w21413

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