Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change
In this paper we estimate the impacts of climate change on the allocation of time using econometric models that exploit plausibly exogenous variation in daily temperature over time within counties. We find large reductions in U.S. labor supply in industries with high exposure to climate and similarly large decreases in time allocated to outdoor leisure. We also find suggestive evidence of short-run adaptation through temporal substitutions and acclimatization. Given the industrial composition of the US, the net impacts on total employment are likely to be small, but significant changes in leisure time as well as large scale redistributions of income may be consequential. In developing countries, where the industrial base is more typically concentrated in climate-exposed industries and baseline temperatures are already warmer, employment impacts may be considerably larger.
We thank Eli Berman, Janet Currie, Partha Deb, Sherry Glied, Gordon Hanson, Ryan Kellogg, Wojtek Kopczuk, Robert Mendelsohn, Michael Roberts, Hilary Sigman, Till von Wachter, and Ty Wilde and seminar participants at Yale University, the University of Illinois - Chicago, the University of Maryland, the Northeastern Conference in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, and the Triangle Resource and Environmental Economics Seminar Series for numerous useful comments. We also thank Ashwin Prabhu for excellent research assistance. We are particularly indebted to Wolfram Schlenker for many helpful discussions and for generously sharing data. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2014. "Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1 - 26. citation courtesy of