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Non-Technical Summaries

  • The estimated probability of disaster [a decline in national income or consumption of more than 10 percent in a year] is around 3.5...

Published Versions

Robert J. Barro & Jose F. Ursua, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 255-350. citation courtesy of

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