03699cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002100070245013100091260006600222490004200288500001800330520234600348530006102694538007202755538003602827690007602863690007002939690015903009700002603168700002103194710004203215830007703257856003803334856003703372w12648NBER20191120015346.0191120s2006 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aAcemoglu, Daron.10aLearning and Disagreement in an Uncertain Worldh[electronic resource] /cDaron Acemoglu, Victor Chernozhukov, Muhamet Yildiz. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2006.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w12648 aOctober 2006.3 aMost economic analyses presume that there are limited differences in the prior beliefs of individuals, as assumption most often justified by the argument that sufficient common experiences and observations will eliminate disagreements. We investigate this claim using a simple model of Bayesian learning. Two individuals with different priors observe the same infinite sequence of signals about some underlying parameter. Existing results in the literature establish that when individuals are certain about the interpretation of signals, under very mild conditions there will be asymptotic agreement---their assessments will eventually agree. In contrast, we look at an environment in which individuals are uncertain about the interpretation of signals, meaning that they have non-degenerate probability distributions over the conditional distribution of signals given the underlying parameter. When priors on the parameter and the conditional distribution of signals have full support, we prove the following results: (1) Individuals will never agree, even after observing the same infinite sequence of signals. (2) Before observing the signals, they believe with probability 1 that their posteriors about the underlying parameter will fail to converge. (3) Observing the same sequence of signals may lead to a divergence of opinion rather than the typically presumed convergence. We then characterize the conditions for asymptotic agreement under "approximate certainty"---i.e., as we look at the limit where uncertainty about the interpretation of the signals disappears. When the family of probability distributions of signals given the parameter has "rapidly-varying tails" (such as the normal or exponential distributions), approximate certainty restores asymptotic agreement. However, when the family of probability distributions has "regularly-varying tails" (such as the Pareto, the log-normal, and the t-distributions), asymptotic agreement does not obtain even in the limit as the amount of uncertainty disappears. Lack of common priors has important implications for economic behavior in a range of circumstances. We illustrate how the type of learning outlined in this paper interacts with economic behavior in various different situations, including games of common interest, coordination, asset trading and bargaining. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aC11 - Bayesian Analysis: General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aC72 - Noncooperative Games2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD83 - Search • Learning • Information and Knowledge • Communication • Belief • Unawareness2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aChernozhukov, Victor.1 aYildiz, Muhamet.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w12648.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1264841uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w12648