Macroeconomic Planning and Disequilibrium: Estimates for Poland, 1955-1980

Richard Portes, Richard E. Quandt, David Winter, Stephen Yeo

NBER Working Paper No. 1182 (Also Reprint No. r0881)
Issued in August 1983
NBER Program(s):International Trade and Investment, International Finance and Macroeconomics

This paper specifies and estimates a four-equation disequilibrium model of the consumption goods market in a centrally planned economy(CPE).The data are from Poland for the period 1955-1980, but the analysis is more general and will be applied to other CPEs as soon as the appropriate data sets are complete.This work is based on previous papers of Portes and Winter (P-W) and Charemza and Quandt(C-Q).P-W applied to each of four CPEs a discrete-switching disequilibrium model with a household demand equation for consumption goods, a planners' supply equation, and a "min" condition stating that the observed quantity transacted is the lesser of the quantities demanded and supplied.C-Q considered how an equation for the adjustment of planned quantities could be integrated into a CPE model with fixed prices and without the usual price adjustment equation.They made plan formation endogenous and permitted the resulting plan variables to enter the equations determining demand and supply.This paper implements the C-Q proposal in the P-W context.It uses a unique new data set of time series for plans for the major macroeconomic variables in Poland and other CPEs.The overall framework is applicable to any large organization which plans economic variables.

download in pdf format
   (309 K)

email paper

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w1182

Published: Portes, Richard, Richard Quandt, David Winter and Stephen Yeo. "Macroeconomic Planning and Disequilibrium: Estimates for Poland, 1955-1980," Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 1, (January 1987), pp. 19-41. citation courtesy of

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded* these:
Portes w1875 The Theory and Measurement of Macroeconomic Disequilibrium in Centrally Planned Economies
Portes, Quandt, Winter, and Yeo w1076 Planning the Consumption Goods Market: Preliminary Disequilibrium Estimates for Poland, 1955-1980
Portes w0782 Central Planning and Monetarism: Fellow Travelers?
Burkett, Portes, and Winter w0736 Macroeconomic Adjustment and Foreign Trade of Centrally Planned Economies
Acemoglu, Bimpikis, and Ozdaglar w16410 Dynamics of Information Exchange in Endogenous Social Networks
NBER Videos

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email:

Contact Us