The Economics of Postdoctoral Researcher Positions

This chapter examines the dramatic growth and evolving role of postdoctoral researchers in the U.S. scientific workforce from 1979 to 2023, highlighting a fourfold increase in postdoc numbers that outpaced growth in graduate students and faculty. We argue that this expansion reflects the fragmented nature of science funding, particularly the effects of the NIH budget doubling in the early 2000s, which increased both supply and demand for postdocs but ultimately worsened employment conditions. The chapter also explores the career outcomes of postdocs, noting limited economic returns outside academia and declining transitions to faculty roles. With recent declines in postdoc numbers, tightening immigration policies, and rising compensation, it seems likely that the U.S. may have reached “peak postdoc,” potentially leading to reduced future research output. The chapter concludes with a call for improved data and further research to better understand postdocs’ roles in scientific production and career development.