2021, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcam, " Cross-Country Economic Linkages and Pandemic Recovery"

Vaccine roll-out programs are moving at different rates in different nations. As a result of larger advance purchases of vaccine and stronger health care infrastructure, these programs are generally proceeding more quickly in high- than in low-income nations. Developed economies will re-open sooner than their developing-country counterparts. However, the latter are important suppliers of inputs used in developed nations, and they also represent a substantial market for their output. As a result, pandemic-related slowdowns in developing nations spill over to more advanced economies. In a recent working paper (28395), NBER affiliate Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcam and her collaborators estimate the economic cost to developed countries of the lack of vaccinations in the developing world. They find that a substantial share of the lost global output associated with the continued prevalence of COVID-19 in developing nations occurs in developed nations. Kalemli-Ozcam summarizes these results in the video above.