International Trade in an Uncertain World

We are grateful to Princeton and Stanford Universities for research support. We thank Pol Antràs, Arnaud Costinot, Elhanan Helpman, Oleg Itskhoki, Matteo Maggiori, Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, Diana Van Patten, Ludwig Straub, Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, and participants at the CEPR Trade Wars and De-dollarization conference, CEPR Geoeconomics conference, CEPR Erwit Conference, Global Economic Networks (GEN) Workshop, Cowles Foundation Conference at Yale University, NBER Summer Institute, New York University, NY Fed, Northwestern University, Nottingham University, Pacific Macro Conference, Stanford University, Tsinghua Growth and Institutions Conference, and University of Auckland for helpful comments. We thank Bingqing Yang and Shuhan Zou for excellent research assistance. Any results, opinions and errors are the responsibility of the authors alone. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.