Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs

We thank Cristina Arellano, Mary Amiti, Omar Barbiero, Charles Engel, Aaron Flaaen, Jason Furman, Gita Gopinath, Marc Melitz, Emi Nakamura, Fabrizio Perri, Albert Queralto, Andreas Schaab, Raphael Schoenle, Mariano Somale, Jon Steinsson, Jenny Tang, David Weinstein, Mike Waugh, and seminar participants at Harvard, Berkeley, Di Tella, UdeSA, UNLP, CEBRA, the Minneapolis Fed, the Fed Board, the Boston Fed, and the IMF for useful comments and suggestions. We are also grateful to Caroline Coughlin from PriceStats and to Matthew Nemesure and George Price from Harvard’s D3 Institute for their valuable assistance with the data and AI methods. Alberto Cavallo is the co-founder of PriceStats LLC, a private company that contributed proprietary price data for this research at no cost and with no requirement to review the findings. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.