Predictably Unpredictable Inspections

We are very grateful to Nicolas R. Ziebarth and Maura Coughlin for excellent discussions of this paper. We also thank Zarek Brot, Yiqun Chen, Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Joshua Gottlieb, Neale Mahoney, Kelli Marquardt, Ariel Pakes and Yu Fu Wong for helpful conversations and discussions, as well as seminar audiences at the Whistler Junior Health Economics Summit, Chicago Health Economics Workshop, RAND, the Johns Hopkins Health Care Economics Workshop, Stanford University, ASHEcon, the NBER Summer Institute, the California Health Economics Conference, Rutgers University, Yale School of Public Health, NBER–New York, Annual Health Economics Conference, New York Health Economics Day, Indiana University, and the Brookings Institution. Aman Aggarwal, Michelle Gard, Sangwook Suh, and Fuman Xie provided excellent research assistance. This project received financial support from Arnold Ventures and the Becker Friedman Institute. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

• November 18, 2025