A p Theory of Taxes and Debt Management
Working Paper 29931
DOI 10.3386/w29931
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Distortions induce a benevolent government that must finance an exogenous expenditure process to smooth taxes. An optimal fiscal plan determines the marginal cost —p’ of servicing government debt and makes government debt risk-free. A convenience yield tilts debts forward and taxes backward. An option to default determines debt capacity. Debt-GDP ratio dynamics are driven by 1) a primary deficit, 2) interest payments, 3) GDP growth, and 4) hedging costs. We provide quantitative comparative dynamic statements about debt capacity, debt-GDP ratio transition dynamics, and time to exhaust debt capacity.
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Copy CitationWei Jiang, Thomas J. Sargent, Neng Wang, and Jinqiang Yang, "A p Theory of Taxes and Debt Management," NBER Working Paper 29931 (2022), https://doi.org/10.3386/w29931.
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