The Natural Level of Capital Flows
We put forward a theory-based time-varying supply-side measure of the natural level of capital flows, KF*. Out-of-sample empirical features of KF* are impressive. For countries that have quarterly time series data of capital flows, we show that KF* is a level to which flows converge in the medium term; greatly improves our ability to model notoriously volatile capital flows; and performs well against out-of-sample and in-sample filtering techniques. The gap between actual inflows and KF* also helps predict both 6-quarters ahead sudden stop episodes and medium-term equity returns. We close with how KF* and lessons from the global financial crisis help us think about capital flows during the Covid-19 shock.
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Copy CitationJohn D. Burger, Francis E. Warnock, and Veronica Cacdac Warnock, "The Natural Level of Capital Flows," NBER Working Paper 26184 (2019), https://doi.org/10.3386/w26184.Download Citation
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Published Versions
John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2022. "A Natural Level of Capital Flows," Journal of Monetary Economics 130: 1-16. citation courtesy of 
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