NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Expectations During the U.S. Housing Boom: Inferring Beliefs from Actions

Itzhak Ben-David, Pascal Towbin, Sebastian Weber

NBER Working Paper No. 25702
Issued in March 2019, Revised in November 2019

---- Acknowledgments ----

We are grateful to Olivier Blanchard, Alex Chinco, Hamid Faruqee, Andreas Fuster, Maja Ganarin, Ayhan Kose, Kenneth Kuttner, Xiaoji Li, Prakash Loungani, John Muellbauer, Chris Otrok, Antoinette Schoar, Emil Stavrev, Martin Straub, Susan Watcher, and Paul Willen as well as participants at the American Economic Association Conference, the Annual Paul Woolley Conference, the Bundesbank-IMF-DFG Conference, the SSES Congress, and the International Monetary Fund and SNB Research seminars for very helpful comments. This draft replaces an earlier version entitled "Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom." Ben-David is with The Ohio State University and the National Bureau of Economic Research; Towbin is with the Swiss National Bank; and Weber is with the International Monetary Fund. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of International Monetary Fund, the Swiss National Bank, or the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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