A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Macroprudential Policy
NBER Working Paper No. 23614
We theoretically analyze the interactions between asset prices, financial speculation, and macroeconomic outcomes when output is determined by aggregate demand. If the interest rate is constrained, a rise in the risk premium lowers asset prices and generates a demand recession. This reduces earnings and generates a feedback loop between asset prices and aggregate demand. The recession is exacerbated by speculation due to heterogeneous asset valuations during the ex-ante low-risk-premium period. Macroprudential policy that restricts speculation can Pareto improve welfare. We also provide empirical support for the mechanisms by comparing impulse responses to house price shocks within and outside the Eurozone.
Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w23614
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