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A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Macroprudential Policy

Ricardo J. Caballero, Alp Simsek

NBER Working Paper No. 23614
Issued in July 2017, Revised in August 2018
NBER Program(s):Asset Pricing, Corporate Finance, Economic Fluctuations and Growth, International Finance and Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics

We theoretically analyze the interactions between asset prices, financial speculation, and macroeconomic outcomes when output is determined by aggregate demand. If the interest rate is constrained, a rise in the risk premium lowers asset prices and generates a demand recession. This reduces earnings and generates a feedback loop between asset prices and aggregate demand. The recession is exacerbated by speculation due to heterogeneous asset valuations during the ex-ante low-risk-premium period. Macroprudential policy that restricts speculation can Pareto improve welfare. We also provide empirical support for the mechanisms by comparing impulse responses to house price shocks within and outside the Eurozone.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w23614

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