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Simulating Russia's and Other Large Economies' Challenging and Interconnected Transitions

Seth G. Benzell, Eugene Goryunov, Maria Kazakova, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Guillermo LaGarda, Kristina Nesterova, Andrey Zubarev

NBER Working Paper No. 21269
Issued in June 2015, Revised in September 2015
NBER Program(s):Public Economics Program

This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed, the increases are so large as to question their political feasibility let alone their actual collection given the potential for tax avoidance and tax evasion.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w21269

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