NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans

Anna Orlik, Laura Veldkamp

NBER Working Paper No. 20445
Issued in August 2014, Revised in October 2015

---- Acknowledgments ----

We are grateful for comments from NBER EF&G meetings, Wharton, Yale SOM, Banque de France, HEC, Bank of England, Toulouse School of Economics, U. Quebec at Montreal, Conference on Macroeconomic Uncertainty at Dallas Federal Reserve, the NBER Summer Institute forecasting group, NYU Alumni Conference, North American and European meetings of the Econometric Society, AEA meetings, Becker-Friedman Institute Policy Uncertainty Workshop, SED meetings, NBER Universities Research Conference on The Macroeconomic Consequences of Risk and Uncertainty, Barcelona GSE Summer Forum, CEF meetings, UCL Uncertainty and Economic Forecasting Workshop, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, the NYU macro lunch, and also to Nick Bloom, Michele Lenza, Ignacio Presno, Thomas Sargent, Matthew Smith, Tom Stark, our EF&G discussant Jennifer La'O, our NBER Universities Research Conference discussant, Rudi Bachmann, and our AEA discussant, Lars Hansen. Many thanks to Edward Atkinson, Isaac Baley, David Johnson, Callum Jones, Nic Kozeniauskas and Pau Roldan for outstanding research assistance. We acknowledge grant assistance from the Stern Center for Global Economy and Business. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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