Sources of Variation in Holding Returns for Fed Funds Futures Contracts
This paper relates predictable gains from positions in fed funds futures contracts to violations of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. Although evidence for predictable gains from positions in short-horizon contracts is mixed, we find that gains in longer horizon contracts can be well described using Markov-switching models, with predictability associated with particular episodes in which economic activity was weak and variability in the returns to these contracts was quite high.
We are grateful to Michael Bauer, Brent Bundick, Eric Swanson, and an anonymous referee for comments on an earlier draft. Okimoto thanks the JSPS Postdoctoral Fellowships for Research Abroad for financial support. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
“Sources of Variation in Holding Returns for Fed Funds Futur es Con- tracts,” Journal of Futures Markets 31, no. 3 (2011): 205-229 (coauthored with Tatsuyoshi Okimoto). citation courtesy of