We Won't Be Missed: Work and Growth in the AGI World
This is a preliminary draft and may not have been subjected to the formal review process of the NBER. This page will be updated as the chapter is revised.
This chapter explores the long-run implications of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) for economic growth and labor markets. AGI makes it feasible to perform all economically valuable work using compute. I distinguish between bottleneck and supplementary work—tasks essential versus nonessential for unhindered growth. As computational resources expand: (i) the economy automates all bottleneck work, (ii) some supplementary work may be left exclusively to humans, (iii) output becomes linear in compute and labor and its growth is driven by the expansion of compute, (iv) wages converge to the opportunity cost of computational resources required to reproduce human work, and (v) the share of labor income in GDP converges to zero.