How Adaptable Are American Workers to AI-Induced Job Displacement?

We construct an occupation-level adaptive capacity index that measures a set of worker characteristics relevant for navigating job transitions if displaced, covering 300 occupations that represent 91.9 percent of the US workforce. We find that AI exposure and adaptive capacity are positively correlated: many occupations highly exposed to AI contain workers with relatively strong means to manage a job transition. Of the 34.7 million workers in the top quartile of AI exposure, 23.9 million also have above-median adaptive capacity, leaving them comparatively well-equipped to handle job transitions if displacement occurs. At the same time, 3.3 million workers (2.5 percent of the workforce in our sample) are both highly exposed and have low adaptive capacity. These workers are concentrated in clerical, administrative support, and assistance roles. Importantly, AI exposure reflects potential changes to work tasks, not inevitable displacement; only some of the changes brought on by AI will result in job loss. By distinguishing between highly exposed workers with relatively strong means to adjust and those with limited adaptive capacity, our analysis shows that exposure measures alone can obscure both areas of resilience to technological change and concentrated pockets of vulnerability if displacement were to occur.