Meetings: Winter, 2016

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Industrial Organization

The NBER's Program on Industrial Organization met in Palo Alto on January 29–30. Research Associates Philip Haile of Yale University and Katja Seim of the University of Pennsylvania organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

  • Matthew L. Gentry, Tatiana Komarova, and Pasquale Schiraldi, London School of Economics, "Simultaneous First-Price Auctions with Preferences over Combinations: Identification, Estimation, and Application"
  • Marie-Laure Allain and Claire Chambolle, École Polytechnique (Palaiseau); Stéphane Turolla, INRA (Rennes); and Sofia Villas-Boas, University of California, Berkeley, "The Impact of Retail Mergers on Food Prices: Evidence from France"
  • Steven Berry and Philip Haile, Yale University and NBER, "Identification in Differentiated Products Markets" (NBER Working Paper No. 21500)
  • Amit Gandhi, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Jean-François Houde, University of Pennsylvania and NBER, "Measuring Substitution Patterns in Differentiated Products Industries"
  • Dominic Coey and Kane Sweeney, eBay Research Labs, and Bradley Larsen, Stanford University and NBER, "The Bidder Exclusion Effect" (NBER Working Paper No. 20523)
  • A. Kerem Coşar, Stockholm School of Economics; Paul Grieco, Pennsylvania State University; Shengyu Li, Durham University; and Felix Tintelnot, University of Chicago and NBER, "What Drives Home Market Advantage?" (NBER Working Paper No. 21583)
  • Anita Rao, University of Chicago, and Emily Y. Wang, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, "Demand for 'Healthy' Products: False Claims in Advertising"
  • Anita Rao, "Strategic R and D Investment Decisions in the Pharmaceutical Industry"
  • Fernando Luco, Texas A&M University, "Who Benefits from Price Disclosure? Evidence from Retail Gasoline"
  • Jean-François Houde; and Yuya Takahashi and Ricard Gil, Johns Hopkins University, "Preemptive Entry and Technology Diffusion in the Market for Drive-in Theaters"
  • Mitsukuni Nishida, Johns Hopkins University, and Nathan Yang, McGill University, "Dynamic Franchising Decisions"
  • Mitsuru Igami and Kosuke Uetake, Yale University, "Mergers, Innovation, and Entry-Exit Dynamics: The Consolidation of the Hard Disk Drive Industry, 1996–2015"
  • Tiago Pires, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and Alberto Salvo, National University of Singapore, "Cash-Constrained Households and Product Size"
  • Viplav Saini, Oberlin College, "Entry, Exit, and Investment in Auction Markets"
  • Bradley Shapiro, University of Chicago, "Informational Shocks, Off-Label Prescribing, and the Effects of Physician Detailing"
  • Yufeng Huang, University of Rochester, "Learning by Doing and Consumer Switching Costs"
  • Amil Petrin and Boyoung Seo, University of Minnesota, "Identification and Estimation of Discrete Choice De-mand Models when Observed and Unobserved Product Characteristics are Correlated"
  • Frank Wolak, Stanford University and NBER, "Designing Minimum-Risk Nonlinear Price Schedules for Water Utilities"
  • Mar Reguant, Northwestern University and NBER, "Bounding Equilibria in Counterfactual Analysis"
  • Michael Dinerstein, University of Chicago, and Troy D. Smith, RAND Corporation, "Quantifying the Supply Response of Private Schools to Public Policies"
  • Mark L. Egan, University of Minnesota, and Ali Hortaçsu and Gregor Matvos, University of Chicago and NBER, "Deposit Competition and Financial Fragility: Evidence from the U.S. Banking Sector"


National Security

An NBER meeting on the economics of national security, directed by NBER President-Emeritus Martin Feldstein of Harvard University and Research Associate Eli Berman of University of California, San Diego, was held in Cambridge on February 11. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

  • Benjamin Crost, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign; Claire Duquennois, University of California, Berkeley; Joseph Felter, Stanford University; and Daniel I. Rees, University of Colorado, Denver, "Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Civil Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines"
  • Mathieu Couttenier and Veronica Preotuv, University of Geneva, and Dominic Rohner and Mathias Thoenig, University of Lausanne, "The Violent Legacy of Victimization: Post-Conflict Evidence on Asylum Seekers, Crimes, and Public Policy in Switzerland"
  • Vera Mironova, Harvard University; Sam Whitt, High Point University; and Loubna Mrie, Syrian researcher, "Grievances in Civil War Participation: Micro-Level Evidence from Syria"
  • Samuel A. Bazzi and Matthew Gudgeon, Boston University, "Local Government Proliferation, Diversity, and Conflict"
  • Brian Duncan and Hani Mansour, University of Colorado, Denver, and Bryson Rintala, U.S. Air Force Academy, "Weighing the Military Option: The Effects of Wartime Conditions on Career Pathways"
  • Ryan Brown and Andrea P. Velásquez, University of Colorado, Denver; Verónica Montalva, Duke University; Duncan Thomas, Duke University and NBER, "Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War"
  • Alex Imas, Carnegie Mellon University; Michael A. Kuhn, University of Oregon; and Vera Mironova, "A History of Violence: Field Evidence on Trauma, Discounting, and Present Bias"


Labor Studies

The NBER's Program on Labor Studies, directed by David Card of the University of California, Berkeley, met in San Fran-cisco on February 12. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

  • Giovanni Peri, University of California, Davis, and NBER, and Vasil Yasenov, University of California, Davis, "The Labor Market Effects of a Refugee Wave: Applying the Synthetic Control Method to the Mariel Boatlift" (NBER Working Paper No. 21801)
  • Adriana D. Kugler, Georgetown University and NBER; Maurice Kugler, IMPAQ International LLC; Juan Saavedra, University of Southern California; and Luis Omar Herrera Prada, Inter-American Development Bank, "Long Term Direct and Spillover Effects of Job Training: Experimental Evidence from Colombia" (NBER Working Paper No. 21607)
  • Sarena Goodman, Federal Reserve Board, and Adam Isen, Department of the Treasury, "UnFortunate Sons: Effects of the Vietnam Draft Lottery on the Next Generation's Labor Market"
  • Eunice Han, Wellesley College, "The Myth of Unions' Overprotection of Bad Teachers: Evidence from the District-Teacher Matched Panel Data on Teacher Turnover"
  • Alberto Abadie, Harvard University and NBER; Susan Athey and Guido Imbens, Stanford University and NBER; and Jeffrey Wooldridge, Michigan State University, "Clustering as a Design Problem"
  • Sebastian Calónico, University of Miami, and Jeffrey Smith, University of Michigan and NBER, "The Women of the National Supported Work Demonstration"


Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth

The NBER's Working Group on Entrepreneurship met in Durham, NC, on February 12. Research Associates David T. Robinson and Manuel Adelino of Duke University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

  • Can Tian, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, "Cyclical Patterns of Business Entry and Exit Dynamics in the U.S. Economy"
  • Yong Suk Lee, Stanford University, "Entrepreneurship, Small Businesses, and Economic Growth in Cities"
  • Brian Baugh and Hoonsuk Park, Ohio State University, and Itzhak Ben-David, Ohio State University and NBER, "Can Taxes Shape an Industry? Evidence from the Implementation of the 'Amazon Tax' "
  • Titan M. Alon, Northwestern University; David W. Berger, Northwestern University and NBER; and Robert C. Dent and Benjamin Pugsley, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, "Older and Slower: The Startup Deficit's Lasting Effects on Productivity Growth"
  • Jorge Guzman, MIT, and Scott Stern, MIT and NBER, "The State of American Entrepreneurship: Evidence from 15 States"
  • Mark Curtis, Wake Forest University, and Ryan Decker, Federal Reserve Board, "Entrepreneurship and State Policy"
  • Konrad B. Burchardi, Stockholm University; Thomas Chaney, Toulouse School of Economics; and Tarek A. Hassan, University of Chicago and NBER, "Migrants, Ancestors, and Investments" (NBER Working Paper No. 21847)
  • Jean-Noel Barrot, MIT, and Ramana Nanda, Harvard University and NBER, "Labor Market Effects of Financing Frictions"
  • Sabrina T. Howell, New York University, "Very Early Venture Finance: An Evaluation of Pitch Competitions"


Economic Growth


An NBER meeting on economic growth, organized by Research Associate Ariel Burstein of the University of California, Los Angeles, and Faculty Research Fellow Nancy Qian of Yale University, was held in San Francisco on February 18. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

  • David de la Croix, Université catholique de Louvain; Matthias Doepke, Northwestern University and NBER; and Joel Mokyr, Northwestern University, "Clans, Guilds, and Markets: Apprenticeship Institutions and Growth in the Pre-Industrial Economy"
  • Pablo Fajgelbaum, University of California, Los Angeles, and NBER; Eduardo Morales, Princeton University and NBER; Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, Duke University and NBER; and Owen M. Zidar, University of Chicago and NBER, "State Taxes and Spatial Misallocation" (NBER Working Paper No. 21760)
  • Francisco J. Buera, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and Roberto Fattal-Jaef, The World Bank, "The Dynamics of Development: Innovation and Reallocation"
  • Lutz Hendricks, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and Todd Schoellman, Arizona State University, "Human Capital and Development Accounting: New Evidence from Wage Gains at Migration"
  • Daron Acemoglu, MIT and NBER; Suresh Naidu, Columbia University and NBER; Pascual Restrepo, MIT; and James A. Robinson, University of Chicago and NBER, "Democracy Does Cause Growth" (NBER Working Paper No. 20004)
  • Solomon M. Hsiang, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER, and Amir Jina, University of Chicago, "The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence from 6700 Cyclones" (NBER Working Paper No. 20352)


Economic Fluctuations and Growth

The NBER's Program on Economic Fluctuations and Growth met in San Francisco on February 19. Research Associates Ellen McGrattan of the University of Minnesota and Giorgio Primiceri of Northwestern University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

  • Timo Boppart, Stockholm University, and Per Krusell, Stockholm University and NBER, "Labor Supply in the Past, Present, and Future: A Balanced-Growth Perspective"
  • Greg Kaplan and Benjamin Moll, Princeton University and NBER, and Giovanni L. Violante, New York University and NBER, "Monetary Policy According to HANK" (NBER Working Paper No. 21897)
  • Marcelo Veracierto, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, "Adverse Selection, Risk Sharing, and Business Cycles"
  • Sumit Agarwal, National University of Singapore; Souphala Chomsisengphet, Department of the Treasury; Neale Mahoney, University of Chicago and NBER; and Johannes Stroebel, New York University and NBER, "Do Banks Pass Through Credit Expansions to Consumers Who Want to Borrow?" (NBER Working Paper No. 21567)
  • Dongya Koh, University of Arkansas; Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Washington University in St. Louis; and Yu Zheng, City University of Hong Kong, "Labor Share Decline and Intellectual Property Products Capital"
  • Pedro Bordalo, Royal Holloway, University of London; Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University; and Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University and NBER, "Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles"


Law and Economics

The NBER's Program on Law and Economics, directed by Christine Jolls of Yale University, met in Cambridge on March 4. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

  • Claudia Möllers and Hans-Theo Normann, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics, and Christopher Snyder, Dartmouth College and NBER, "Communication in Vertical Markets: Experimental Evidence"
  • David Musto, University of Pennsylvania, and Jillian A. Popadak, Duke University, "Who Benefits from Bond Market Modernization?"
  • Ye Cai, Santa Clara University; Jin Xu, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University; and Jun Yang, Indiana University Bloomington, "Affiliated Corporate Donations and Director Independence"
  • Alex Edmans, London Business School; Luis Goncalves-Pinto, National University of Singapore; Yanbo Wang, Sungkyunkwan University; and Moqi Xu, London School of Economics, "Strategic News Releases in Equity Vesting Months" (NBER Working Paper No. 20476)
  • Will S. Dobbie, Princeton University and NBER, and Jae Song, Social Security Administration, "Debt Relief or Debt Restructuring? Evidence from an Experiment with Distressed Credit Card Borrowers"
  • Jesse Leary and Jialan Wang, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, "Liquidity Constraints and Budgeting Mistakes: Evidence from Social Security Recipients"
  • Alberto Galasso, University of Toronto and NBER, and Mark Schankerman, London School of Economics, "Patent Rights and Innovation by Small and Large Firms" (NBER Working Paper No. 21769)
  • Itai Ater, Tel Aviv University; Yehonatan Givati, Harvard University; and Oren Rigbi, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, "The Economics of Rights: Does the Right to Counsel Increase Crime?"
  • A. Mitchell Polinsky, Stanford University and NBER, "Prison Work Programs in a Model of Deterrence"


Monetary Economics

The NBER's Program on Monetary Economics met in New York on March 4. Faculty Research Fellows Olivier Coibion of the University of Texas at Austin and Eric T. Swanson of the University of California, Irvine, organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

  • Sydney C. Ludvigson, New York University and NBER; Sai Ma, New York University; and Serena Ng, Columbia University, "Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?" (NBER Working Paper No. 21803)
  • Stefania Albanesi, Ohio State University; Giacomo De Giorgi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Jaromir Nosal, Boston College; and Matthew Ploenzke, Harvard University, "Credit Growth and the Financial Crisis: A New Narrative"
  • Marco Di Maggio, Columbia University, and Amir Kermani and Christopher Palmer, University of California, Berkeley, "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Allocation of Credit"
  • Ali Ozdagli, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and Michael Weber, University of Chicago, "Monetary Policy through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market"
  • Richard Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Andrea Tambalotti, and Giorgio Topa, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, "Subjective Intertemporal Substitution"
  • Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Harvard University and NBER, and Johannes Wieland, University of California, San Diego, and NBER, "Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles" (NBER Working Paper No. 21864)


Development of the American Economy


The NBER's Program on the Development of the American Economy, directed by Claudia Goldin of Harvard University, met in Cambridge on March 5. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

  • Marcella Alsan, Stanford University and NBER, and Marianne H. Wanamaker, University of Tennessee and NBER, "Tuskegee and the Health of Black Men"
  • Katherine Eriksson, University of California, Davis, and NBER, and Greg Niemesh, Miami University, "The Impact of Migration on Infant Health: Evidence from the Great Migration"
  • Charles W. Calomiris, Columbia University and NBER, and Matthew S. Jaremski, Colgate University and NBER, "Stealing Deposits: Deposit Insurance, Risk-Taking and the Removal of Market Discipline in Early 20th Century Banks"
  • Michael D. Bordo, Rutgers University and NBER, and Arunima Sinha, Fordham University, "A Lesson from the Great Depression that the Fed Might have Learned: A Comparison of the 1932 Open Market Purchases with Quantitative Easing"
  • Peter Koudijs, Stanford University and NBER, and Laura Salisbury, York University and NBER, "Bankruptcy and Investment: Evidence from Changes in Marital Property Laws in the U.S. South, 1840–50" (NBER Working Paper No. 21952)
  • Joseph P. Ferrie, Northwestern University and NBER, and Catherine Massey and Jonathan L. Rothbaum, Bureau of the Census, "Do Grandparents Still Matter? Multigenerational Mobility in the U.S. from 1940–2013"