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About the Author(s)


Charles F. Manski has been Board of Trustees Professor in Economics at Northwestern University since 1997. He previously was a faculty member at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (1983–98), the Hebrew University of Jerusalem (1979–83), and Carnegie Mellon University (1973–80). He received his BS and PhD in economics from MIT in 1970 and 1973. He has received honorary doctorates from the University of Rome Tor Vergata (2006) and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem (2018).

Manski’s research spans econometrics, judgment and decision, and analysis of public policy. He is an author of numerous books including Patient Care under Uncertainty (2019), Public Policy in an Uncertain World (2013), Identification for Prediction and Decision (2007), Social Choice with Partial Knowledge of Treatment Response (2005), Partial Identification of Probability Distributions (2003), Identification Problems in the Social Sciences (1995), and Analog Estimation Methods in Econometrics (1988), and coauthor of College Choice in America (1983). He has served as director of the Institute for Research on Poverty (1988–91).

Manski is an elected Member of the National Academy of Sciences, an elected Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Econometric Society, the American Statistical Association, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, a Distinguished Fellow of the American Economic Association, and a Corresponding Fellow of the British Academy.


1. Patient Care under Uncertainty, Manski C. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2019. Go to ⤴︎
2. Credible Ecological Inference for Personalized Medicine: Formalizing Clinical Judgment,” Manski C. NBER Working Paper 22643, September 2016, and published as “Credible Ecological Inference for Medical Decisions with Personalized Risk Assessment,” Quantitative Economics 9(2), July 2018, pp. 541–569. Go to ⤴︎
3. Predicting Kidney Transplant Outcomes with Partial Knowledge of HLA Mismatch,” Manski C, Tambur A, Gmeiner M. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116(41), October 2019, pp. 20339–20345. Go to ⤴︎
4. Identification for Prediction and Decision, Manski C. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2007. Go to ⤴︎
5. Tuberculosis Diagnosis and Treatment under Uncertainty,” Cassidy R, Manski C. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116(46), November 2019, pp. 22990–22997. Go to ⤴︎
6. Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: With Application to Randomized Experiments,” Manski C. NBER Technical Working Paper 242, May 1999, and published as “Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations,” Econometrica 72(4), July 2004, pp. 1221–1246. Go to ⤴︎
7. Statistical Decision Properties of Imprecise Trials Assessing COVID-19 Drugs,” Manski C, Tetenov A. NBER Working Paper 27293, June 2020. Go to ⤴︎
8. Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions under Uncertainty,” Manski C. NBER Working Paper 23915, October 2017, and published as “Reasonable Patient Care under Uncertainty,” Health Economics 27(10), October 2018, pp. 1397–1421. Go to ⤴︎
9. Meta-Analysis for Medical Decisions,” Manski C. NBER Working Paper 25504, January 2019, and published as “Toward Credible Patient-Centered Meta-Analysis,” Epidemiology 31(3), May 2020, pp. 345–352. Go to ⤴︎
10. Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem,” Manski C, Molinari F. NBER Working Paper 27023, April 2020, and Journal of Econometrics   Go to ⤴︎
11. Bounding the Predictive Values of COVID-19 Antibody Tests,” Manski C. NBER Working Paper 27226, May 2020. Go to ⤴︎
12. COVID-19 Policy Must Take All Impacts into Account,” Manski C. Scientific American, March 28, 2020. Go to ⤴︎
13. Communicating Uncertainty in Policy Analysis,” Manski C. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116(16), April 2019, pp. 7634–7641. Go to ⤴︎
14. Vaccine Approvals and Mandates Under Uncertainty: Some Simple Analytics,” Manski C. NBER Working Paper 20432, August 2014, and published as “Mandating Vaccination with Unknown Indirect Effects,” Journal of Public Economic Theory 19(3), June 2017, pp. 603–619. Go to ⤴︎

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