Pop-Up Journal - Conferences

The Rate of Return to Research and Development Investments, Fall 2026

The inaugural conference of the Pop-Up Journal: Estimating the Economic Return to R&D Investment project was held on October 2, 2026, in Washington, DC. Organized by Craig Garthwaite and Timothy Simcoe, the meeting opened with a review of past estimates of the rate of return. This literature review (spreadsheet, slides), prepared by Simcoe and Chieh-Hsuan Hu, will also be posted on the Pop-Up Journal website and updated as new research findings emerge.

The conference program included papers that addressed the rate of return on R&D spending using both economy-wide aggregate data as well as micro data on firms. The presentations touched on a range of questions including whether slowing growth reflects a scarcity of ideas, the extent to which technology shocks can be traced to public research funding, the economic value of basic science, new Bureau of Economic Analysis measures of R&D production and investment at the national and state levels, who captures the value of publicly funded innovation, the private value firms gain from innovating for the government, and the long-run effects of the 1970s decline in US military funding for university-based scientific research.

Federal Share of US R&D Funding, trending down from 67% in 1964 to 19% in 2024 — The federal share of US R&D funding has fallen from about two-thirds in the mid-1960s to under one-fifth today. Source: Andrew Fieldhouse, discussion slides, using NCSES National Patterns of R&D Resources data.

One Pop-Up Journal innovation is surveying economists working on measuring the rate of return to R&D about their beliefs regarding this important parameter. Ezra Karger of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Forecasting Research Institute, a survey expert, presented the results of an initial survey that was completed by many of the conference participants as well as by others who are familiar with research in this area. The results provide a snapshot of expert beliefs at the start of this initiative; future surveys will update and refine these measures.

Survey Estimate of Gross Internal Rate of Return, Median is 25% — Expert forecasts of the gross internal rate of return to a one-time, 20 percent (about $18 billion) increase in federal nondefense R&D spending in FY2027. Points show median forecasts and lines span the 10th to 90th percentiles. The aggregate median forecast is 25 percent per year. Preliminary results based on 23 respondents surveyed September 18–October 1, 2026.

One goal of the meeting was to identify potential focus areas for future annual conferences. The conference included a working lunch at which participants proposed and debated ideas that the organizers and steering committee could consider.

Next Conference, 2027

The second Pop-Up Journal conference will be held on Thursday, October 7, 2027 in Washington, DC. A call for papers, and further details on the focal topics for this meeting, will be posted on this website as the meeting draws closer. In addition, the NBER Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy Conference, which will be held on Thursday, May 13, 2027, in Washington, DC, will also include two papers that relate to the rate of return to R&D investment.