Devaluation Risk and the Syndrome of Exchange-Rate-Based StabilizationsEnrique G. Mendoza, Martin Uribe
NBER Working Paper No. 7014 This paper shows that the risk of devaluation can be an important factor accounting for the stylized facts of exchange-rate-based stabilizations. This conclusion follows from studying the quantitative implications of a two-sector equilibrium business cycle model of a small open economy calibrated to Mexico's 1987-1994 stabilization plan. In the model a time-variant interest rate differential that acts as a stochastic tax on money demand, labor supply, investment, and saving. Under incomplete markets, this tax induces endogenous state-contingent wealth effects via fiscal adjustment and suboptimal investment. Devaluation risk entails large welfare costs in this environment.
Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w7014 Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 53 (2000),forthcoming. Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded* these:
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