The Impacts of Parole Supervision

Luke D. Brinkman; Andrew Jordan; Derek Neal

doi:10.3386/w34663

The Impacts of Parole Supervision

Luke D. Brinkman, Andrew Jordan & Derek Neal

Working Paper 34663

DOI 10.3386/w34663

Issue Date January 2026

Revision Date July 2026

We study a reform to parole supervision that reduced supervision terms for some Illinois parolees from 12 to 6 months. Using difference-in-differences, we find that the reform reduced prison re-entry rates. Sharp drops in technical revocation rates drove these reductions. Rates of prison re-admissions linked to new crimes were unchanged. Cook County court records confirm these findings. The reform reduced parole costs without creating measurable harms to public safety. We develop a conceptual framework that shows how shorter terms of supervision could reduce rates of criminal activity, and we show how this framework informs on-going debates about parole supervision policies.

We thank workshop participants at Dartmouth, Notre Dame, Yale, UC Davis, and the Institute for Research on Poverty Summer Research Workshop. We also thank Jens Ludwig, Crystal Yang, and members of the NBER Crime Working Group for their feedback. We owe special thanks to Steve Mello and Evan Rose for generous feedback, and we thank Fernando Alvarez for helpful modeling advice. We also owe thanks to many people who gave generously of their time to help us better understand how the criminal courts in Cook County and the Illinois Department of Corrections operate and record activities. We thank Jordan Boulger, Jennifer Dohm, Katie Hill, Ian Jantz, Gwyn Troyer, Matthew Bonanno, Sharon Shipinski, and Sarah Staudt. This project is supported by a grant from Arnold Ventures. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Andrew Jordan
This research study is supported by money from Arnold Ventures. Dr. Jordan receives income from Arnold Ventures for work that is not a part of this study. These activities may include consulting, advisory boards, giving speeches, or writing reports. This activity has been reviewed by Washington University’s (WU’s) Conflicts of Interest Review Committee (CIRC) in accordance with WU’s Research Conflicts of Interest Policy and/or WU’s Institutional Conflict of Interest Committee (ICOIC) in accordance with WU’s Institutional Conflict of Interest (ICOI) Policy.
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Luke D. Brinkman, Andrew Jordan, and Derek Neal, "The Impacts of Parole Supervision," NBER Working Paper 34663 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w34663.

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The Impacts of Parole Supervision

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