The Impacts of Parole Supervision

Luke D. Brinkman; Andrew Jordan; Derek Neal

doi:10.3386/w34663

The Impacts of Parole Supervision

Luke D. Brinkman, Andrew Jordan & Derek Neal

Working Paper 34663

DOI 10.3386/w34663

Issue Date January 2026

Revision Date February 2026

We study the impacts of a reform to parole supervision in Illinois. The reform reduced the term of supervision for some parolees from 12 months to 6 months. Using a standard difference-in-differences estimator, we find clear evidence that the reform reduced prison re-entry rates. Sharp drops in technical revocation rates drove these reductions. Rates of prison re-admissions linked to new crimes did not change. Cook County Court records also show no evidence that the reform increased crime rates among parolees. The reform reduced both the cost of incarceration and the cost of parolee supervision without creating harms to public safety.

We thank workshop participants at Dartmouth and Yale. We also thank Jens Ludwig, Crystal Yang, and members of the NBER Crime Working Group for their feedback. We owe special thanks to Steve Mello and Evan Rose for generous feedback. We also owe thanks to many people who gave generously of their time to help us better understand how the criminal courts in Cook County and the Illinois Department of Corrections operate and record activities. We thank Jordan Boulger, Jennifer Dohm, Katie Hill, Ian Jantz, Gywn Troyer, Matthew Bonanno, Sharon Shipinski, and Sarah Staudt. This project is supported by a grant from Arnold Ventures. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Andrew Jordan
This research study is supported by money from Arnold Ventures. Dr. Jordan receives income from Arnold Ventures for work that is not a part of this study. These activities may include consulting, advisory boards, giving speeches, or writing reports. This activity has been reviewed by Washington University’s (WU’s) Conflicts of Interest Review Committee (CIRC) in accordance with WU’s Research Conflicts of Interest Policy and/or WU’s Institutional Conflict of Interest Committee (ICOIC) in accordance with WU’s Institutional Conflict of Interest (ICOI) Policy.
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Luke D. Brinkman, Andrew Jordan, and Derek Neal, "The Impacts of Parole Supervision," NBER Working Paper 34663 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w34663.

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- January 7, 2026

The Impacts of Parole Supervision

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