Beliefs and Realities of Work and Childcare After Childbirth

When women plan for life after childbirth, they form beliefs about work, childcare, and how their careers will unfold. These expectations shape key decisions but are formed under deep uncertainty. We use a 2019 state-contingent survey of 11,000 Danish women linked to administrative data to compare pre-birth beliefs to realized outcomes. Mothers accurately anticipate their eventual return to work but underestimate the duration of the career interruption. This miscalibration stems from two belief errors—about partner leave and own labor supply—which interact and persist even among second-time mothers, with implications for labor supply, planning, and policy design.