Preferences, Beliefs, and Demand for the Flu Vaccine

Can economic tools help inform the puzzlingly low rate of flu vaccination? Existing interventions focus on misinformation or nudges, not preferences over or beliefs about vaccine characteristics. Using an online experiment, we find a key role for effectiveness and short-run side-effects: equalizing only beliefs and preferences about these characteristics nearly eliminates the vaccination-intention gap between the vaccine hesitant and confident. Fear of needles, inconvenience, and perceived long run health risks play smaller roles. The vaccine hesitant hold pessimistic but plausible beliefs about effectiveness but greatly overestimate side-effect risks. We estimate the impact of correcting inaccurate beliefs and potential subsidies on vaccination rates.