Cumulative Risks of Foster Care Placement for U.S. Children: Comparing Birth Cohort and Synthetic Cohort Approaches

Foster care placement is a far-reaching intervention that can have substantial long-term effects on children and families. Lifetime prevalence estimates are based on synthetic cohort life tables, which rely on a stationarity assumption that age-specific rates are stable over time. This paper uses a birth cohort life table approach for the 2000-2002 cohorts, where data from birth to 18 years allows us to observe lifetime prevalence of foster care placement directly. We find that 5.0% of children born in these cohorts were placed in foster care, including 10% of Black children and 12% of Native American children, with considerable heterogeneity across U.S. states. By comparing both methods, we see that synthetic cohort estimates were 17% higher than birth cohort estimates because placement rates for teenagers were higher at the point of synthetic cohort estimation than during their actual teenage years. We extend synthetic cohort estimates to 2019 and find similar placement rates by sex over time, increasing shares of placements due to neglect and substance abuse, decreasing shares due to child behavioral issues, and an increasing share of placements into kinship foster care. These patterns are similar regardless of the approach.