Gun Policy and the Steel Paradox: Evidence from Oregunians
Working Paper 33360
DOI 10.3386/w33360
Issue Date
Using Measure 114’s narrow passage in Oregon as a natural experiment, we study how new gun regulations affect firearm demand. Background checks, a proxy for demand, rose 13.9% in anticipation of the referendum and surged 157% immediately following the election. After judicial intervention halted the law’s enactment, demand returned near pre-election levels. Temporal displacement/harvesting does not explain the demand spike: after eighteen months, we still observe a substantial cumulative increase of 63,000 excess firearm-related background checks. Administrative data reveal significant county-level heterogeneity. This evidence underscores the paradoxical effect of gun-control policies, offering a cautionary lesson to policymakers.
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Copy CitationKatie Bollman, Benjamin Hansen, Edward A. Rubin, and Garrett O. Stanford, "Gun Policy and the Steel Paradox: Evidence from Oregunians," NBER Working Paper 33360 (2025), https://doi.org/10.3386/w33360.