What Can Measured Beliefs Tell Us About Monetary Non-Neutrality?

This paper was formerly circulated under the title: “Selection in Information Acquisition and Monetary Non- Neutrality.” We are grateful to Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko for their invaluable feedback and for sharing data. We also thank Fernando Alvarez (discussant), Saroj Bhattarai, Mark Dean, Mishel Ghassibe (discussant), Zhen Huo (discussant), Chen Lian, Davide Melcangi (discussant), Giuseppe Moscarini, George Nikolakoudis, Karthik Sastry, Luminita Stevens (discussant), and Michael Woodford as well as seminar participants at Columbia University, University of Notre Dame, LMU Munich, Princeton University, University of Texas at Austin, the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Cleveland, Richmond, San Francisco, and St. Louis, the Federal Reserve Board, Keio University, University of Tokyo, Kyoto University, the Bank of Japan, the Salento Macro Meetings, the 12th Banco de Portugal Conference on Monetary Economics, the 3rdWorkshop on Firm Heterogeneity and Macroeconomics, the 2024 Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics Conference, and the NBER Monetary Economics conference for thoughtful comments and suggestions. We thank the Center for Advancement of Data and Research in Economics at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City for providing computational resources that contributed to the results reported in this paper. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Board, any person associated with the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic Research.

• June 5, 2024