Pandemics, Global Supply Chains, and Local Labor Demand: Evidence from 100 Million Posted Jobs in China
This paper studies how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected labor demand using over 100 million posted jobs on one of the largest online platforms in China. Our data reveals that, due to the effects of the pandemic both in China and abroad, the number of newly posted jobs within the first 13 weeks after the Wuhan lockdown on January 23, 2020 was about one third lower than that of the same lunar calendar weeks in 2018 and 2019. Using econometric methods, we show that, via the global supply chain, COVID-19 cases abroad and in particular pandemic-control policies by foreign governments reduced new job creations in China by 11.7%. We also find that Chinese firms most exposed to international trade outperformed other firms at the beginning of the pandemic but underperformed during recovery as the Novel Coronavirus spread throughout the world.
For helpful comments and suggestions, we would like to thank Frank Pisch, Scott Rozelle and Bernard Yeung. Chunmian Ge gratefully acknowledges funding support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 71872065) and Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province for Distinguished Young Scholar (Grant 2019B151502027) and GDUPS (2019). We are responsible for all remaining errors. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.