Self-fulfillment Expectations, Speculation Attacks, and Capitol Controls
This paper examines the endogenous implementation of capital controls in the context of a fixed exchange rate regime. It is shown that if there exists a non-zero probability that the policymaker's response to a speculative attack on official foreign reserves will be the introduction of controls, such an attack may occur even when current and expected monetary policy is consistent with a permanently viable, control-free fixed exchange rate regime. Consequently, capital controls may be the outcome of self- fulfilling expectations rather than the result of imprudent economic policies.
Dellas, Harris and Alan C. Stockman. "Self-Fulfilling Expectations, Speculative Attacks, And Capital Controls," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1993, v25(4), 721-730.