NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Over-reaction in Macroeconomic Expectations

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer

NBER Working Paper No. 24932
Issued in August 2018

---- Acknowledgments ----

We thank Olivier Coibion, Xavier Gabaix, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Luigi Guiso, Lars Hansen, David Laibson, Jesse Shapiro, Paolo Surico, participants at the 2018 AEA meeting, NBER Behavioral Finance Meeting, NBER Summer Institute, and seminar participants at EIEF, Ecole Politechnique, Harvard, and LBS for helpful comments. We acknowledge the financial support of the Behavioral Finance and Finance Stability Initiative at Harvard Business School and the Pershing Square Venture Fund for Research on the Foundations of Human Behavior. Gennaioli thanks the European Research Council for Financial Support under the ERC Consolidator Grant (GA 647782). We thank Johan Cassell, Francesca Miserocchi, Johnny Tang, and especially Spencer Kwon and Weijie Zhang for outstanding research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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