The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier
We show how real and financial frictions amplify, prolong and propagate the negative impact of uncertainty shocks. We first use a novel instrumentation strategy to address endogeneity in estimating the impact of uncertainty by exploiting differential firm exposure to exchange rate, policy, and energy price volatility in a panel of US firms. Using common proxies for financial constraints we show that ex-ante financially constrained firms cut their investment even more than unconstrained firms following an uncertainty shock. We then build a general equilibrium heterogeneous firms model with real and financial frictions, finding financial frictions: i) amplify uncertainty shocks by doubling their impact on output; ii) increase persistence by extending the duration of the drop by 50%; and iii) propagate uncertainty shocks by spreading their impact onto financial variables. These results highlight why in periods of greater financial frictions uncertainty can be particularly damaging.
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Copy CitationIván Alfaro, Nicholas Bloom, and Xiaoji Lin, "The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier," NBER Working Paper 24571 (2018), https://doi.org/10.3386/w24571.
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Published Versions
Iván Alfaro & Nicholas Bloom & Xiaoji Lin, 2024. "The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier," Journal of Political Economy, vol 132(2), pages 577-615.