NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
loading...

Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?

Kasey Buckles, Daniel Hungerman, Steven Lugauer

NBER Working Paper No. 24355
Issued in February 2018
NBER Program(s):Children, Economic Fluctuations and Growth

Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. In this paper we do something else: using data on more than 100 million births and focusing on within-year changes in fertility, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, the growth rate for conceptions begins to fall several quarters prior to economic decline. Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought.

download in pdf format
   (941 K)

email paper

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w24355

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded* these:
Becker An Economic Analysis of Fertility
Donohue, Aneja, and Weber w23510 Right-to-Carry Laws and Violent Crime: A Comprehensive Assessment Using Panel Data and a State-Level Synthetic Control Analysis
Fowlie, Wolfram, Spurlock, Todd, Baylis, and Cappers w23553 Default Effects and Follow-On Behavior: Evidence from an Electricity Pricing Program
Jones, Molitor, and Reif w24229 What Do Workplace Wellness Programs Do? Evidence from the Illinois Workplace Wellness Study
Abraham and Kearney w24333 Explaining the Decline in the U.S. Employment-to-Population Ratio: a Review of the Evidence
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us