NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
loading...

AI and Jobs: the role of demand

James Bessen

NBER Working Paper No. 24235
Issued in January 2018
NBER Program(s):Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship

Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies will automate many jobs, but the effect on employment is not obvious. In manufacturing, technology has sharply reduced jobs in recent decades. But before that, for over a century, employment grew, even in industries experiencing rapid technological change. What changed? Demand was highly elastic at first and then became inelastic. The effect of artificial intelligence on jobs will similarly depend critically on the nature of demand. This paper presents a simple model of demand that accurately predicts the rise and fall of employment in the textile, steel and automotive industries. This model provides a useful framework for exploring how AI is likely to affect jobs over the next 10 or 20 years.

You may purchase this paper on-line in .pdf format from SSRN.com ($5) for electronic delivery.

Access to NBER Papers

You are eligible for a free download if you are a subscriber, a corporate associate of the NBER, a journalist, an employee of the U.S. federal government with a ".GOV" domain name, or a resident of nearly any developing country or transition economy.

If you usually get free papers at work/university but do not at home, you can either connect to your work VPN or proxy (if any) or elect to have a link to the paper emailed to your work email address below. The email address must be connected to a subscribing college, university, or other subscribing institution. Gmail and other free email addresses will not have access.

E-mail:

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w24235

Forthcoming: AI and Jobs: The Role of Demand, James Bessen. in The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, Agrawal, Gans, and Goldfarb. 2019

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded* these:
Seamans and Raj w24239 AI, Labor, Productivity and the Need for Firm-Level Data
Acemoglu and Restrepo w24196 Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work
Korinek and Stiglitz w24174 Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment
Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson w24001 Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics
Acemoglu and Restrepo w23285 Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us