Lags, Costs, and Shocks: An Equilibrium Model of the Oil Industry

Gideon Bornstein, Per Krusell, Sergio Rebelo

NBER Working Paper No. 23423
Issued in May 2017, Revised in April 2019
NBER Program(s):The Economic Fluctuations and Growth Program

We use a new micro data set that covers all oil fields in the world to estimate a stochastic industry-equilibrium model of the oil industry with two alternative market structures. In the first, all firms are competitive. In the second, OPEC firms act as a cartel. This effort is a first step towards studying the importance of ongoing structural changes in the oil market in a general-equilibrium model of the world economy. We analyze the impact of the advent of fracking on the volatility of oil prices. Our model predicts a large decline in this volatility.

Acknowledgments

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w23423

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