The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China
NBER Working Paper No. 23377
We estimate the quantity-based monetary policy system in China. We argue that China's rising shadow banking was inextricably linked to banks' balance-sheet risk and hampered the effectiveness of monetary policy on the banking system during the 2009-2015 period of monetary policy contractions. By constructing two micro datasets at the individual bank level, we substantiate this argument with three empirical findings: (1) in response to monetary policy tightening, nonstate banks actively engaged in intermediating shadow banking products; (2) these banks, in sharp contrast to state banks, brought shadow banking products onto the balance sheet via risky investments; (3) bank loans and risky investment assets in the banking system respond in opposite directions to monetary policy tightening, which makes monetary policy less effective. We build a theoretical framework to derive the above testable hypotheses and explore implications of the interaction between monetary and regulatory policies.
Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w23377
Published: Kaiji Chen & Jue Ren & Tao Zha, 2018. "The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China," American Economic Review, vol 108(12), pages 3891-3936. citation courtesy of
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