NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
loading...

Structural Change and Patterns of International Trade

Robert E. Baldwin

NBER Working Paper No. 2058
Issued in October 1986
NBER Program(s):The International Trade and Investment Program, The International Finance and Macroeconomics Program

This paper focuses on economists' understanding of the basic determinants of trade patterns and, in particular, on the manner in which these underlying factors change over time and are affected by various policies. A brief survey contrasts the determinants of the structure of trade emphasized by the Ricardian, Heckscher-Ohlin, and imperfect competition models and discusses how well the predictions of these various theories are supported by empirical evidence. The main conclusion of the survey is that trade economists have been reasonably successful in explaining the structure of trade at any point in time but much less successful in understanding how the determinants of the patterns of trade change over time. This inability to explain how the basic determinants of the structure of trade change over time can lead both to poor predictions and bad policy advice. Given the increased interest in long-term shifts in trading structures, it is argued that trade economists should enlarge their analytical framework by endogenizing to a greater extent the basic economic factors determining these shifts. They must also recognize the endogenous nature of trade policies in their models, if they are to carry out their predictive and evaluative roles in the best possible manner.

download in pdf format
   (306 K)

download in djvu format
   (190 K)

email paper

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w2058

Published: (eds) John Black and Allisdair McBean, Macmillan Press: 1989. Structures of International Trade.

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded* these:
Ben-David and Papell w6096 International Trade and Structural Change
Bradford and Branson Patterns of Trade and Structural Change
Branson, Giersch, and Peterson Trends in United States International Trade and Investment since World War II
Deardorff Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?
McMillan and Rodrik w17143 Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us