An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic
Eleven percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used one quarter of the time. A choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed to analyze the Malawian epidemic. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The analysis suggests that the efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and general equilibrium effects that are typically absent in epidemiological studies and small-scale field experiments. For some interventions (some forms of promoting condoms or marriage), the quantitative exercise suggests that these effects may increase HIV prevalence, while for others (such as male circumcision or increased incomes) they strengthen the effectiveness of the intervention. The underlying channels giving rise to these effects are discussed in detail.
We thank Pascaline Dupas and seminar audiences at the 2009 SED Meetings in Istanbul, the 2009 SITE workshop, the 2009 LACEA/LAMES Meetings, the NBER Growth Conference in San Francisco 2010, the University of Wisconsin,World Bank, University of Frankfurt, University of Mannheim, University of Konstanz,Washington University in St. Louis, University of Texas at Austin, and the University of Zürich for helpful comments. Financial support from NSF grant SES-0748889, ERC grant SH1-313719, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. Last but not least, Olga Itenberg and Vera Molitor provided excellent research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Jeremy Greenwood & Philipp Kircher & Cezar Santos & Michèle Tertilt, 2019. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1081-1113, July. citation courtesy of